I Will Survive, Episode 5

I have a confession to make: I am completely addicted to Survivor.  Have been on and off for quite a long time.  And you thought my taste in entertainment couldn't possibly get any worse.

Like the few other things I watch on TV, I am extremely opinionated about Survivor and I know I could do a better job than everyone involved.  Unfortunately I'm a lazy shit and I can't swim all that well.  Ok, at all.  But I sure as hell can pass judgment on the cast!  I'm also very good at copying other people, so I'm going to pull a Bill Simmons and separate the cast into tiers depending on their chances of ultimate victory.  Spoilers to follow.

No Chance.  No Chance In Hell.
Brandon - His strong alliance with Coach might keep in the game for a long time, but there is no way in hell a jury is giving this dude $1 million.  If Survivor were a drinking game, we'd be finishing our beers every time Lil Hantz breaks down in tears to tell us how much of a nice guy he really is deep down inside.  I just hope he makes it to the family challenge so I can see the "Oh fuck the Dragon Slayer just pooped himself" face Coach makes when Uncle Russell comes sauntering out of the jungle.

Keith and Whitney - These two dumb fucks made me yell at the TV.  There is no stupider move than not taking one of the two sides in a tribal split.  Now neither side wants you or trusts you, you dumb twatwaffles, and you just handed the tribe to that asshat Jim on a silver fucking platter.

Edna - Undoubtedly the next one out of Upolu.  That's a model tribe right there, with a clear pecking order and solid leadership.  Everything Savaii isn't.

Elise - No way she beats Christine on Redemption Island.  That'd be like the Red Sox losing the Wild Card to Tampa B--nevermind.

You Can't See Me
Rick - If it weren't for the mustache and the cowboy hat I would've completely forgotten this guy.  He says about one sentence per episode, which tells me the producers don't care because he doesn't get very far or do anything all that interesting.

It's All About the Game And How You Play It
Cochran - Yet more evidence that I need to try out.  If they'll take this fucker, they'll take me.


Mikayla - Next out after Edna, unless she can find a way to turn Lil Hantz's ridiculous hatred of her around on him.  Sadly I think she's more inclined to just cry about it than she is to try to use it to her advantage.  Possible swing vote if she makes it to the merge.

Ozzy - Watching him give Coach a big hug while flipping off the idiots in Savaii post-merge is going to be absolutely magnificent.  But he might be the next one out if his tribe loses again, and those flip-floppers tend to be the bottom of the list in their new alliances.

Christine - I wouldn't put running the Redemption Island table beyond Christine.  And if she makes it back, she's going to cause some problems for the other players in the individual challenges.

Jim - Classic overthinker.  He would've been smarter to keep Ozzy and Elyse around and happy; pissing Ozzy off now does nothing to actually help the tribe.

Albert and Sophie - Boooooooooooooooooooooooooring.   But that can go far.  Neither is dumb enough to fuck themselves over by betraying Coach, but neither is good enough to win the individual challenges.

I Came to Play
Dawn - Surprised?  Physically fit older women who aren't batshit insane always fly under the radar and reach the final four.  I could write a treatise on this phenomenon.  Keith and Whitney's fuck up catapulted Dawn up out of the "Cochran or the old broad?" discussion and into the threesome suddenly in control of Savaii.  Just watch.

Coach - The odds-on favorite.  He's got a tribe that hangs on his every word.  He's got an immunity idol in his back pocket and could add another if Ozzy swings post-merge.  He doesn't have a Jerri to hit on, so he no longer makes me want to throw up.  Brandon is the only crack in his armor right now.  If he gets rid of Lil Hantz too soon, he loses a strong hand in the challenges and could see a major pain in the ass coming back to bite him if the kid survives Redemption Island.  If he keeps him around too long, the others might start to think he's stupid.  My thought: Edna first, then Brandon if they lose again pre-merge.

Yes, I named all of my tiers using lyrics from wrestling entrance music.  Yes, that was a stupid fucking idea that has nothing to do with the subject matter.  No, I don't know what the fuck is wrong with me.